Coupled Analysis of Fourth-Generation Residential Balcony Configurations in Cold Regions with Carbon Reduction, Energy Efficiency, and Thermal Comfort

Driven by the demand for high-quality housing, fourth-generation residential buildings—known internationally as “Vertical Forest” and in China as “Urban Forest Garden”—have developed rapidly. Initially built in mild southern regions, they have recently expanded to colder northern areas, with over 50 projects underway in provinces such as Shanxi, Hebei, Shaanxi, and Gansu. Several cities have introduced design standards and incentives, and the China Association for Standardization of Engineering Construction has issued the “Design Standards for Urban Forest Garden Housing.” However, in cold regions, where winters are long and cold and summers are short and hot, there is a lack of systematic quantitative research on how balcony design affects building carbon reduction, energy efficiency, and indoor thermal comfort. To address this research gap, this paper poses the following research questions: (1) In fourth-generation residential buildings in cold regions, how do different combinations of balcony orientations affect annual energy consumption and indoor thermal comfort? (2) Which balcony configurations offer the best balance between carbon reduction, energy efficiency, and thermal comfort? Based on statistical analysis of terrace configurations from more than 40 projects, 12 typical configuration models were identified. Using Ladybug and Honeybee tools on the Grasshopper platform, building energy consumption and indoor thermal comfort were simulated. Multi-objective trade-off analysis was performed using the Pareto front method. In this study, indoor thermal comfort was evaluated using the PMV (Predicted Mean Vote) index. PMV is an index proposed by Professor Fanger that comprehensively reflects human thermal sensation, taking into account air temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean radiant temperature, human metabolic rate, and clothing thermal resistance. Its typical range is −3 (cold) to +3 (hot); in this study, the comfort zone was defined as −1 ≤ PMV ≤ 1. Key findings: (1) The southwest + south terrace configuration shows the highest annual energy consumption, exceeding the lowest (northwest + west) by 2.7%, indicating that south-facing terraces are less favorable for carbon reduction. (2) The best thermal comfort is achieved with east, west, and south orientations. Compared to the least comfortable combination (southwest + northwest), the difference in PMV comfort percentage reaches 2.4%. (3) The Pareto front reveals that beyond a certain comfort level, energy consumption increases sharply. The west + south and east + south combinations yield the highest thermal comfort (49.4%) while maintaining relatively low energy consumption (17.98 kWh/m 2 ). Therefore, in cold regions, fourth-generation residential designs should prioritize terrace combinations integrating south-facing and side-facing orientations and avoid pure corner configurations to balance winter solar gain and summer shading.