Governance-Driven Macro-Level Health Outcomes: Operationalizing the Sustainability Nexus Through Cross-National Environmental Informatics

Governance–Sustainability has increasingly emerged as an important framework for understanding how institutional capacity influences long-term development outcomes. This study empirically examines the relationships among Institutional Quality, Energy Transition, and Population Health and Development Outcomes within the ASEAN-10 states. Drawing upon the theoretical perspectives of New Institutionalism and Ecological Modernization Theory, the study employs Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to analyze balanced longitudinal panel dataset (2000–2020) (N = 210 observations). The empirical results indicate that Institutional Quality is significantly associated with Energy Transition outcomes (β = −0.981, p < 0.001), while Energy Transition is significantly associated with Population Health and Development Outcomes (β = −0.982, p < 0.001). Furthermore, the findings provide evidence of a significant mediation effect, indicating that the relationship between Institutional Quality and Population Health and Development Outcomes operates indirectly through Energy Transition processes. The study contributes to the governance and sustainability literature by integrating institutional quality, sustainability transitions, and development outcomes within a unified Governance–Sustainability framework and supporting a Multi-Level Governance perspective. From a policy standpoint, the findings highlight the importance of strengthening institutional capacity and sustainability governance to support long-term development objectives. Overall, the results demonstrate that Institutional Quality functions as a foundational condition for sustainability transitions, while Energy Transition serves as a key mechanism linking governance capacity with Population Health and Development Outcomes in the ASEAN context.