Spatio-Temporal Patterns, Driving Mechanisms, and Multi-Scenario Projections of Expansion in the Ningxia Yellow River Urban Agglomeration

The Ningxia Yellow River Urban Agglomeration, located in the ecologically fragile arid and semi-arid zone of the upper Yellow River, serves as a critical spatial carrier for maintaining the ecological security of the Yellow River Basin and supporting the regional economy and population agglomeration in Ningxia. Driven by rapid urbanization, intensified human–land conflicts have induced widespread ecological degradation and unbalanced water–soil resource allocation across the region. Based on land use data from 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2023, we applied the land use transition matrix, land use dynamic degree and standard deviational ellipse to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of spatial expansion of the Ningxia Yellow River Urban Agglomeration over the past decade. The Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was further employed to predict the land use demand and spatial distribution of the study area under diverse scenarios in 2035. The research results reveal three key findings. First, grassland, cropland and unused land constitute the dominant land use types across the study region, jointly occupying more than 90% of the total territorial area. Over the past decade, regional land use has undergone noticeable changes: grassland area has continuously declined, cropland and built-up land have sustained steady expansion, and water areas have experienced a mild reduction. Land use conversions mainly occur among grassland, cropland and built-up land. Second, driving factors vary substantially in their spatial contributions to the expansion of different land use types. The spatial growth of cropland and built-up land is comprehensively shaped by terrain conditions, economic development and transportation location superiority. In comparison, the distribution and dynamic changes in forestland, grassland and water areas are predominantly restricted by natural elements, including precipitation, temperature and soil characteristics. Third, multi-scenario simulation results verify that differentiated territorial spatial planning and regulatory policies profoundly affect the evolutionary trajectory of regional territorial patterns. The natural development scenario experienced the most intensive expansion of built-up land, with a newly increased area of 181.11 km 2 . The ecological protection scenario can effectively curb the loss of ecological land and minimize the shrinkage of grassland resources. The cropland protection scenario is conducive to stabilizing cropland scale to the greatest extent and restraining the disorderly sprawl of urban land. The sustainable development scenario realizes coordinated and balanced changes in all land use types and delivers mutually beneficial progress between regional ecological conservation and socioeconomic development.