The Mystery of the High-Carbon Bias in Technology Trade?—An Empirical Examination at the Provincial Level in China Under the Influence of the Digital Economy

Addressing climate change and advancing the “dual-carbon” goals are core tasks for the high-quality sustainable development of the Chinese economy. As a key vehicle for the market-based allocation of technological factors, the direction of the carbon effects and transmission mechanisms of technology transactions remain highly contested. This paper addresses the mystery of the high-carbon bias in technology transactions under the mediation of the digital economy, conducting an empirical analysis based on provincial panel data from China covering the period 2011–2023. The findings reveal that the net outcome of provincial-level technology transactions exhibits a high-carbon bias, significantly increasing carbon emission intensity; the energy consumption structure exerts a significant masking effect, with its emission-reduction effects being entirely overshadowed by the direct carbon-increasing effect; the digital economy exerts a positive moderating effect on this carbon-increasing effect and exhibits a dual-threshold characteristic; the carbon effect evolves in stages and is significant only in provinces with high levels of digital economy and innovation. This paper reveals the intrinsic logic of the carbon effect of technology transactions and provides policy recommendations for guiding the decarbonization of technology transactions and promoting the synergy between the digital economy and green transition, thereby contributing to regional and global sustainability goals.