How Does Rural Human Capital Shape Agricultural Industrial Chain Resilience? Evidence from 30 Chinese Provinces

Enhancing the resilience of the agricultural industrial chain is a critical pillar for ensuring national food security and promoting the construction of a strong agricultural nation. This study explores the direct impact, transmission mechanisms, and boundary conditions of rural human capital on the agricultural industrial chain. Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2010 to 2024, this study constructed a comprehensive measurement index system and employed two-way fixed effects, Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), System Generalized Moment Estimation (System GMM), and panel threshold regression models. The results indicate that rural human capital acts as a significant endogenous driver enhancing agricultural resilience. Mechanism analysis reveals this positive effect is indirectly transmitted through the rationalization and advancement of the industrial structure. Furthermore, marketization levels exert a double-threshold effect. The empowering effect of rural human capital on the resilience of the agricultural industrial chain is most pronounced at low marketization levels, while its marginal contribution continues to decline as marketization advances to medium and high levels. Heterogeneity tests show this enhancement is most pronounced in economically developed and disaster-prone regions. In conclusion, to fully release human capital dividends and improve the system’s risk-resistance capacity, policymakers should construct multi-level cultivation systems, leverage structural optimization, and implement moderately paced, localized market reforms.