How Does Digital Trade Affect Pollution Control and Carbon Mitigation? Evidence from the Production, Public, and Government Dimensions

Digital trade reflects the convergence of the new technological revolution and traditional trade. Investigating its effectiveness in pollution control and carbon mitigation (PCCM) is crucial for addressing global environmental challenges. This research exploits the rollout of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones (CECPZs) as an exogenous policy shock, leveraging double machine learning (DML) methods to assess the impact of digital trade on PCCM using panel data from 280 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2023. The results reveal that digital trade significantly enhances PCCM, mainly by promoting technological innovation, intelligent industrial transformation, and public participation; government emphasis on new quality productive forces and digital government construction positively moderates the link between digital trade and PCCM, while intensified environmental regulation exerts a counteracting inhibitory effect. Heterogeneous outcomes reveal that the promoting effects of digital trade are more evident in large areas, as well as in cities that are neither traditional industrial bases nor resource-based. Further analysis shows that digital trade can deliver a triple dividend in the form of reduced pollution, lower carbon emissions, and sustained economic growth. These findings provide meaningful guidance for promoting a balanced and sustainable relationship between human activities and the natural environment in the digital era.