The Effects of Agricultural Machinery Services on Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Evidence from China

Against the dual objectives of food security and sustainable agriculture, this study examines how agricultural machinery services—China’s primary organized mode of agricultural production—affect agricultural carbon emissions. Using panel data covering 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2022, this study applies two-way fixed effects, mediation, and moderation models to investigate the effects of these services on carbon emissions as well as the mechanisms involved. The results show: (1) Both carbon emissions and the level of machinery services in China differ by region and over time. Carbon emissions are stabilizing, while machinery services are steadily improving. Both variables cluster in certain areas. (2) Machinery services exhibit a significant inverted U-shaped impact on carbon emissions. As the level of machinery services grows, emissions first rise, then fall. (3) The emission reduction impact of machinery services varies widely. It differs across topographic relief, farmland types, and grain crop types, but the inverted U-shaped relationship remains in most cases. (4) The efficiency of the division of labor and agricultural chemical input intensity partly explain the effect. They help reduce emissions by enabling labor substitution and lower input levels. (5) Large-scale agricultural operations strongly influence how machinery services affect carbon emissions. To accelerate the low-carbon sustainable transformation of Chinese agriculture, efforts should prioritize establishing a differentiated, regionally tailored agricultural machinery socialized service system, improving service efficiency and green development capacity, and optimizing large-scale land management structures.