The Trust–Preparedness Paradox: Institutional Confidence and Household Flood Risk Readiness in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Climate change is intensifying flood risks globally, yet preparedness behaviors vary dramatically across governance contexts. While past disaster research suggests that institutional trust enables individual preparedness, this relationship remains unexplored in high-capacity governance systems where citizens hold exceptionally strong confidence in government response. We examined this dynamic in the United Arab Emirates, where several surveys have found extremely high levels of public confidence in the local government institutions. In our survey of 900 respondents in the emirates of Dubai and Sharjah we also found that 97% of the respondents had confidence in local government institutions. However, interestingly we also found that while 77% of residents reported past experience with floods, household flood preparedness was markedly low. Using covariance-based structural equation modeling, we tested whether government trust mediates relationships between flood experience, risk perception, and household preparedness. The results revealed that government trust exhibited a strong negative association with flood preparedness, suggesting that institutional confidence may suppress rather than enable household protective action. Notably, flood experience was associated with reduced government trust, likely reflecting the impact of disappointment with service restoration times that exceeded individual expectations. This erosion of trust created positive mediation, indicating that flood experience was associated with increased preparedness. Conversely, higher risk perception was associated with increased trust, which was associated with reduced preparedness through negative mediation. Direct relationships between flood experience and preparedness were statistically non-significant, indicating complete mediation through the trust pathway. Socioeconomic status was positively associated with flood preparedness, with wealthier residents displaying higher protective behaviors. While these findings seem to challenge conventional disaster preparedness theory, the results align with the moral hazard and dependency arguments. Our results show that state-led disaster management in high-capacity governance systems may inadvertently create dependency that increases systemic vulnerability crowding out endogenous adaptive behavior. Building resilience in such contexts requires reframing institutional trust to emphasize shared responsibility rather than externalized protection.