Spatiotemporal Evolutionary Characteristics of Strategic Emerging Industries and Their Impact on Carbon Emissions in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

This study examines the spatial distribution and evolutionary trends of strategic emerging industries (SEIs) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region using the registration information of industrial and commercial enterprises from 2000 to 2020. At the county level, panel data and spatial econometric models were established to empirically test the impact of the development of SEIs on carbon emissions and its spatial spillover effects. The findings point to pronounced imbalances in SEIs development within the BTH, with Tianjin and Hebei registering markedly lower SEI shares than Beijing. In terms of spatial distribution, SEIs in the region have transitioned from a dispersed pattern to a dual-cluster structure and are further evolving into a polycentric structure. The empirical results indicate that SEI development has a notable inhibitory effect on local carbon emissions and demonstrates significant spatial spillover effects. For every 1 percentage point increase in the share of SEIs, the carbon emission intensity at the county level decreases significantly by approximately 0.0204 units. The estimation results for all three weight matrices indicate that the indirect effects are greater than the direct effects. This indicates that the SEI development in neighboring counties has a strong spillover effect on local carbon emissions reductions, and that the spillover effect far exceeds the local effect. Therefore, the development of SEIs in the BTH Region should focus on leveraging local comparative advantages to promote reduction in regional carbon emissions.