Demographic Aging Profiles in Polish Voivodeships and Their Relevance to Sustainable Regional Development: An Exploratory SOM-Based Typology for 2015–2024

Population aging has become a major demographic process in modern societies, with its course varying considerably across space. This study examined the scale and dynamics of population aging across Poland’s voivodeships in 2015–2024 and identified its regional patterns. The analysis used data from Statistics Poland’s Local Data Bank for 16 voivodeships and included indicators capturing age composition, demographic dependency, and fertility. The analysis was conducted for 16 Polish voivodeships using data from Statistics Poland’s Local Data Bank for 2015–2024 and indicators describing age structure, demographic dependency, and fertility. An analysis of changes in indicator values over time and Kohonen self-organizing maps (SOM) were applied in two model variants, differing in the measure of population aging adopted. To ensure a consistent direction of interpretation, the variables were appropriately transformed and then standardized. The results indicate spatial variation in the level of population aging and differing dynamics of change during the study period. Four regional profiles were identified, reflecting different patterns of indicators describing age structure, demographic burden, and fertility. Kohonen self-organizing maps were used as an exploratory tool to organize voivodeships according to the similarity of their demographic profiles and to describe changes in their profile assignment over time. From the perspective of sustainability, the identified profiles make it possible to capture territorially differentiated demographic conditions that may be relevant to healthcare, long-term care, regional labor markets, social services, and family policy. The results may support sustainable regional development by providing a basis for designing public policy tailored to the specific characteristics of individual voivodeships. Thus, the study links a multidimensional typology of demographic aging with the need for socially sustainable regional policy. The results suggest that SOM can serve as a useful exploratory tool for visualizing and classifying regional demographic aging profiles.