Heterogeneous Evolution and Influencing Factors of Green Total Factor Productivity of China’s Three Major Airlines

Against the backdrop of the dual-carbon strategy, China’s civil aviation industry, as a high-energy-consumption and high-carbon-emission sector, faces mounting pressure for low-carbon transformation. As the dominant airlines within China’s civil aviation system, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines play a pivotal role in guiding the industry’s high-quality development. Employing the Global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index model, this study constructs a global production frontier incorporating undesirable outputs to systematically measure the dynamic evolution of total factor productivity (TFP) for the three major airlines in the period 2005–2023, and further applies a combined static-dynamic regression framework to identify the firm-level heterogeneous mechanisms through which explanatory factors operate. The results reveal significant heterogeneity in TFP trajectories: China Southern Airlines exhibits the most stable efficiency with the lowest volatility; China Eastern Airlines displays the greatest volatility but the strongest post-crisis rebound; and Air China occupies an intermediate position in both efficiency level and volatility. This differentiation stems from fundamental differences in market positioning, strategic orientation, and resource allocation patterns. Market competitiveness exerts a significantly positive effect on TFP for both Air China and China Eastern Airlines. Technological innovation investment generates short-run negative effects across all three airlines, albeit with divergent magnitudes. Human capital accumulation acts as a positive driver for Air China but produces a negative effect for China Southern Airlines, attributable to a structural mismatch between aggressive talent upgrading and organizational absorptive capacity. Shifting the unit of analysis to the firm level, this study identifies three heterogeneous strategic archetypes—market-led, scale-expansion, and regional-deepening—and constructs a differentiated “one firm, one policy” framework to provide targeted policy guidance for improving airline efficiency and facilitating low-carbon transition under carbon constraints.