Target-Based PM2.5 Implementation Deviation: An Ambiguity–Pressure–Adaptation Framework Based on China’s Ambient Air Quality Data from 2013 to 2022

Despite notable improvements in China’s ambient air quality, local implementation outcomes remain uneven, with some cities continuing to show gaps between officially assigned PM2.5 targets and observed annual PM2.5 concentrations. This study examines target-based PM2.5 implementation deviation under China’s air-pollution target responsibility system. Drawing on an Ambiguity–Pressure–Adaptation framework, it analyzes how policy ambiguity, implementation pressure, and local adaptation are statistically associated with target-based PM2.5 implementation deviation, and whether these associations vary across policy stages. Using panel data from 293 prefecture-level cities from 2013 to 2022, this study applies two-way fixed-effects models, sub-dimension models, stage-heterogeneity interaction models, and robustness checks. The results show that policy ambiguity is positively associated with target-based PM2.5 implementation deviation, whereas implementation pressure and implementation adaptation are negatively associated with it. Goal ambiguity, government pressure, and resource adaptation show relatively stronger associations within their respective dimensions. The stage-heterogeneity analysis indicates that ambiguity is more strongly associated with deviation during 2013–2017, pressure shows a stronger negative association during 2018–2020, and adaptation shows a stronger negative association during 2021–2022. These findings provide association-based evidence suggesting that clearer policy design, stable supervision, and stronger local adaptive capacity are linked to smaller implementation gaps and support sustained air-quality improvement.