Understanding the Ecological Impacts of Desalination Plants on Coastal Ecosystems

This study evaluates the ecological impacts of seawater desalination discharge on coastal marine ecosystems through a sequential analytical framework linking systematic literature synthesis, field-monitoring evidence, spatial analysis, and predictive ecological modeling. The novelty of the study lies in combining multi-regional evidence from Mediterranean coastal zones, Persian Gulf waters, and Pacific coastal environments with threshold-based ecological risk assessment, thereby linking discharge-related environmental stressors with biological responses and ecosystem-function alterations. The systematic review first retained 750 studies published between 2004 and 2024 for qualitative synthesis. On this basis, 59 high-quality references with sufficient numerical information were selected for the main quantitative meta-analysis, while field-monitoring data were used to support the interpretation of distance-based discharge gradients. Spatial interpolation and hierarchical modeling were then applied to evaluate exposure–response patterns and ecological threshold behavior. The results showed that desalination facilities generated measurable ecological impacts mainly within 50–200 m of discharge points, with a critical transition distance of approximately 127 m where hypersaline conditions, typically 1.5–2.0 times ambient seawater levels, were associated with marked changes in marine community structure. Benthic assemblages showed taxon-specific responses, with mollusks and echinoderms exhibiting greater sensitivity than polychaetes and small crustaceans. Marine vegetation declined strongly under combined salinity, thermal, and chemical stress, while phosphonate-based antiscalants accumulated in filter-feeding organisms and produced bioaccumulation factors up to 42.1 times ambient levels. Ecosystem-function indicators, including microbial community composition and sediment organic matter processing, remained altered up to 300 m from discharge points, indicating that functional impacts may extend beyond the primary hypersaline plume. The predictive modeling framework further demonstrated that ecological risk decreased nonlinearly with distance and varied according to discharge intensity, local hydrodynamics, and biological sensitivity. These findings indicate that conventional uniform buffer-based assessment may underestimate the ecological footprint of desalination discharge. Sustainable desalination management should therefore adopt site-specific monitoring, species-sensitive protection thresholds, improved brine-management technologies, and adaptive mitigation strategies based on real-time environmental feedback.