Labor Mobility and the Coupling Coordination of Economic and Ecological Welfare in Northeast China’s State-Owned Forest Regions

Under the concurrent advancement of ecological civilization and resource-dependent region transformation, key state-owned forest areas in northeast China have shifted from timber supply to ecosystem protection. However, while the Natural Forest Protection Program has restored forest resources and increased coverage, it has also led to the contraction of traditional industries, reduced employment, population outflow, and a structural tension between weak economic growth and enhanced ecological functions. This study aims to investigate how labor mobility affects the coordinated development of economic and ecological welfare in these regions. To achieve this, we construct economic and ecological welfare indices using entropy weighting and calculate their coupling coordination degree based on panel data from the China Forestry Statistical Yearbook (2000–2017) and the China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook (2018–2025). Our key scientific contributions are as follows: (1) we reveal a nonlinear and significantly negative impact of labor mobility on coupling coordination; (2) we identify industrial structure as a partial mediating channel; and (3) we uncover significant regional and developmental stage heterogeneity. Methodologically, we employ fixed-effects, mediation, threshold, and spatial panel models to ensure robustness. The findings provide novel insights into labor–environment trade-offs in forest-dependent regions and offer policy implications for optimizing labor allocation, strengthening ecological compensation and industrial synergy, and improving regional governance to achieve coordinated economic–ecological development.