How the Core–Periphery System Shapes Digital-Driven Manufacturing Transformation: Evidence from a Peripheral Province of China

The association between digital economy (DE) and manufacturing transformation (MT) is conditioned by regional structural characteristics, yet little is known about how this association varies within provinces that are peripheral at the national scale. This study examines Yunnan Province, China, as a dual-peripheral context, where regions are simultaneously distant from national economic cores and internally structured along a pronounced core–intermediate–periphery gradient. Using prefecture-level panel data from 16 cities over 2011–2023, the analysis shows that the positive association between DE and MT is spatially attenuated along this gradient. Furthermore, three key regional factors—transportation infrastructure, industrial agglomeration, and technological talent—correspond to distinct spatial conditioning patterns. Transportation infrastructure exhibits an extensible but spatially bounded pattern, industrial agglomeration is most strongly associated with intermediate prefectures, and technological talent displays a highly concentrated pattern within the provincial core. These differentiated patterns indicate that internally differentiated peripheral structures are associated with different forms of spatial conditioning in the observed DE–MT association, rather than producing a uniform spatial pattern. Based on these findings, region-specific strategies targeting connectivity, industrial coordination, and talent development are recommended to support inclusive and context-sensitive manufacturing transformation. The study provides an analytically transferable perspective by highlighting how different regional conditions may correspond to different spatial reaches of digital–manufacturing transformation within peripheral systems.