The Impact of Green Finance on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta

Green finance can theoretically direct capital toward low-carbon sectors, but systematic city-level empirical evidence is still limited for the Yangtze River Delta region. Using panel data of 41 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2024, this paper employs year-fixed-effects, mediation, and moderation models to examine the impact of green finance on carbon emission intensity. The findings are as follows. First, green finance significantly reduces carbon emission intensity. A one-standard-deviation increase in the green finance index lowers carbon intensity by about 23.6% of the sample mean, and this result is robust. Second, green technology innovation contributes about 30% and industrial structure upgrading contributes about 7%, serving as two key mediating pathways. Third, industrial pollution level positively moderates the abatement effect: the more polluted a city, the stronger the marginal emission reduction effect of green finance. Fourth, the emission reduction effect is more pronounced in low-income cities, while the moderating role of urbanization level is not significant. This paper reveals the transmission mechanisms and boundary conditions of the emission reduction effect of green finance, providing empirical evidence for designing regionally adapted green finance policies in the Yangtze River Delta.