Policy-Based Staple Crop Insurance and Agricultural Economic Resilience in China: A Multi-Timepoint DID Analysis (2012–2023)

Enhancing agricultural economic resilience (AER) is essential for global food security. As a key policy tool for stabilizing agricultural production, policy-based agricultural insurance lacks rigorous causal evidence on its impact on resilience. In this study, AER is operationalized as a composite index capturing resistance and recovery capacities across pressure, state, and response dimensions. Using 2012–2023 provincial panel data from China (31 provinces × 12 years = 372 observations), we measure AER via the entropy method and identify policy effects using a staggered multi-timepoint difference-in-differences (DID) model. We find that policy-based staple crop insurance significantly increases AER by approximately 2.5 percentage points, primarily by promoting agricultural technological innovation (ATI) and regional industrial structure upgrading (RIS). The improvement effects are more pronounced in central and western regions, non-major staple-crop producing areas, and regions with higher natural risks. Robustness is confirmed via event study, alternative weighting schemes (PCA and equal weighting), and placebo tests. This study provides reliable causal evidence for the resilience-enhancing effect of agricultural insurance and clarifies its internal transmission mechanisms, offering empirical support for the optimization of agricultural risk governance policies. Limitations include the use of provincial-level aggregate data and the lack of analysis of spatial spillover effects between regions. Our findings suggest that differentiated policy implementation can support more sustainable and targeted agricultural risk governance.