Urban–Rural Integration and Agricultural Ecological Product Value Realization Coupling Measurement and Space–Time Analysis

This study investigates the coupling relationship between urban–rural integration and the value realization efficiency of agricultural ecological products in China. Based on panel data from 30 provinces from 2012 to 2022, the SBM-GML model is used to measure agricultural ecological product value realization efficiency, and the entropy method is used to measure urban–rural integration. The coupling coordination model, Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and Markov chain analysis are then used to examine the spatiotemporal pattern, regional differences, dynamic evolution, and convergence characteristics of the coupling system. The results show that urban–rural integration and agricultural ecological product value realization improved overall, but regional disparities remain significant. The coupling coordination level presents a clear spatial gradient, with the eastern region performing better than the central, western, and northeastern regions. Regional disparities continue to widen, mainly due to inter-regional differences and trans-variation density. The Markov chain results show strong path dependence and spatial spillover effects, while the convergence analysis indicates limited long-term convergence. This study provides an integrated framework for understanding the interaction between urban–rural integration and ecological value realization. It also highlights China’s mixed pathway of government guidance, market participation, factor flow, and ecological value transformation, offering policy implications for coordinated regional development and ecological product value realization.