Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Traditional Villages in Southern Hebei (China): A Multi-Factor Analysis of Dynamic Driving Mechanisms

Traditional villages are important carriers of rural cultural heritage, yet their spatio-temporal distribution and underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently understood, particularly regarding the interaction between environmental and socio-cultural drivers over long historical periods. Focusing on 131 nationally recognized traditional villages in southern Hebei, China, this study integrates GIS-based spatial analysis with historical interpretation to examine their spatial patterns, temporal evolution, and driving factors from the pre-Sui period to the Qing Dynasty and post-Qing period. The results show that traditional villages exhibit a highly clustered and uneven distribution, primarily concentrated in mountain-front zones in the western and southwestern parts of the region. Spatial analysis reveals a multi-core clustering structure, and spatial autocorrelation confirms that this pattern is statistically significant. Temporally, village formation follows a non-linear process of concentration, expansion, and stabilization, with the Ming Dynasty representing a key peak period. The findings further indicate that dominant driving mechanisms shifted over time: early settlement was mainly constrained by environmental conditions, whereas later development increasingly depended on socio-cultural processes such as migration, defense, clan organization, and regional exchange. In the contemporary context, economic development and accessibility introduce complex and non-linear effects. These results suggest that traditional villages should be understood as dynamic cultural landscapes shaped by long-term human–environment interactions. This study provides an integrated framework for understanding rural settlement dynamics and offers insights relevant to rural heritage conservation and sustainable development in transitional regions.