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Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value in Ecologically Fragile Hilly Region: A Case Study of Longji Mountain Area in Guangxi, China

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  • Yu Jiang

    (School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    The Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China
    College of Environment and Resources, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin 541004, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Sihua Huang

    (School of Environment Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211167, China
    Nanjing Institute of Technology Research Center, Key Laboratory of Carbon Neutrality and Territory Optimization, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 211167, China
    International Joint Laboratory of Green & Low Carbon Development, Nanjing 211167, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Lijie Pu

    (School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    The Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China
    School of Environment Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211167, China
    Nanjing Institute of Technology Research Center, Key Laboratory of Carbon Neutrality and Territory Optimization, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 211167, China)

  • Jiahao Zhai

    (School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    The Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Lu Qie

    (School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    The Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China)

Abstract

Ecologically fragile hilly areas are key regions for safeguarding national ecological security and advancing ecological civilization construction. Accurate assessment of ecosystem service value (ESV) and future scenario simulations in these regions is crucial for improving regional land use and attaining sustainable development. Based on high-resolution remote sensing data of the Longji Mountain area in Guangxi, China, from 2013 to 2023, this study systematically assesses the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ESV using the equivalent factor method with localized corrections. This study adopts spatial autocorrelation analysis, geographic modeling, and scenario simulation. It predicts the spatial patterns of ESV for 2028 and 2033 under three scenarios: ecological protection, natural development, and tourism development. The results reveal that: (1) from 2013 to 2023, the total ESV in the Longji Mountain area showed an overall fluctuating trend. It increased first, then declined and recovered slightly, with an average annual growth rate of −0.15%. Spatially, the ESV presented a heterogeneous pattern, characterized by “high-value agglomeration in forest land, medium-value transition in terraced fields, and low-value interpolation in constructed areas”, with distinct clustering features; (2) regional ecological functions are mainly dominated by regulating and supporting services. Climate regulation contributes the highest value. Water supply is the only service with negative value, indicating a persistent water ecological deficit that remains unaddressed; (3) scenario simulations reveal that the total ESV is highest and spatial connectivity is strongest under the ecological protection scenario. Furthermore, a consistent trend is observed across all three scenarios: high-value ESV areas tend to become dominant, while spatial connectivity shows progressive enhancement. The human–land system coupling framework for the ecologically fragile hilly region suggests that ecologically oriented decision-making is the core pathway to sustainably improve ecosystem services and realize regional sustainable development. This study offers scientific support for regional ecological conservation and sustainable advancement.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Jiang & Sihua Huang & Lijie Pu & Jiahao Zhai & Lu Qie, 2026. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value in Ecologically Fragile Hilly Region: A Case Study of Longji Mountain Area in Guangxi, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-30, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:18:y:2026:i:12:p:5926-:d:1963659
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