Air Traffic Growth and Sustainability Trade-Offs: An Exploratory Study of Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport, Serbia

Air transport is a key driver of economic development, tourism, and regional connectivity, yet its growth generates increasing environmental costs. Grounded in the catalytic effects framework and the sustainability trade-off perspective, this exploratory study examines the economic and sustainability dimensions of air traffic recovery and growth at Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport during 2019–2024, a period encompassing a pandemic shock and record post-pandemic expansion. Descriptive statistical analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were applied to six annual data points, supplemented by an approximate CO 2 emission estimation. Passenger traffic increased from 6.16 to 8.37 million (+35.9%), and the destination network expanded from 99 to 135 routes. A positive co-movement was observed between passenger traffic and foreign tourist arrivals (r = 0.970; p = 0.001). No detectable association was found between passenger traffic and annual GDP growth rate (r = 0.143; p = 0.79). Estimated CO 2 emissions grew proportionally from 0.831 to 1.130 million tonnes, consistent with the proportional growth pattern generated by the fixed-factor estimation framework applied. The passengers-per-movement ratio improved from 87.5 to 97.2, indicating a proximate improvement in operational efficiency. These preliminary findings provide exploratory evidence relevant to Sustainable Development Goals 8 and 9 and may inform future research and policy discussions on the sustainability dimensions of airport development.