National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone Policy and Urban Economic Resilience Efficiency: Evidence for Sustainable Urban Development in China

Using panel data from Chinese cities spanning 2010–2023 and leveraging the natural experiment provided by the establishment of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone (NBDPZ), we employed the difference-in-differences (DID) method alongside double machine learning (DML) to systematically examine how these policies influence urban economic resilience efficiency. The empirical results demonstrate that the NBDPZ significantly enhances urban economic resilience efficiency. This finding is robust under parallel trend and placebo tests, confirming that the improvement is a policy-driven causal effect. Mechanism analysis reveals that the policy enhances urban economic resilience efficiency primarily by promoting the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure to consolidate the micro-foundation of sustainable economic transformation; increasing innovation output to facilitate the sustainable accumulation of knowledge capital; and enhancing urban entrepreneurial activity to inject sustainable endogenous vitality into the economic system. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive effects are more pronounced in eastern and western regions, second-tier cities, and cities with lower industrial agglomeration, better digital infrastructure, and stronger legal and regulatory environments. The study’s findings offer both theoretical support and practical guidance for refining the policy framework of the NBDPZ policy and promoting sustainable urban economic development.