Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factor Analysis of the Development Level of Farmers’ Specialized Cooperatives in China

Promoting the high-quality development of farmers’ specialized cooperatives and narrowing regional development gaps is critical for advancing China’s rural revitalization strategy. Based on provincial panel data covering 30 Chinese regions from 2015 to 2023, this paper constructs a five-dimensional evaluation index system including standardized operation, operational performance, service scope, driving effect, and industrial upgrading, and adopts the entropy weight method to quantify the comprehensive development level of cooperatives. By combining spatial autocorrelation, kernel density estimation, the Dagum Gini coefficient and the Geodetector model, this paper explores the spatio-temporal evolution, regional disparities and multi-factor coupled driving mechanism of cooperative development. The main findings are as follows: (1) While the total quantity of cooperatives keeps expanding nationwide, their overall development level presents an evolutionary feature of declining first and then rising; industrial upgrading gradually becomes a new growth engine, whereas operational performance and driving effect slip downward. (2) The spatial layout of cooperatives maintains a typical pyramid structure; high-value agglomeration shifts from the Yangtze River Delta to southeast coastal regions, and low-value clusters are persistently concentrated in Northeast China. (3) The overall Dagum Gini coefficient reflects widening-then-shrinking regional gaps, and intra-eastern provincial differences constitute the primary source of nationwide spatial divergence. (4) Household consumption and rural labor force stock serve as core driving factors; regional economic development, agricultural production efficiency, rural human capital and land resource allocation form a coupled driving system, and all explanatory variables show mutual enhancement effects without offsetting interactions. Targeted policy suggestions are put forward to realize balanced and high-quality development of farmers’ specialized cooperatives across China.