Explainable Machine Learning Framework for Strength Prediction of Sustainable Concrete Incorporating Industrial Waste SCMs with an Embodied Impact Assessment

Concrete contributes significantly to global CO 2 emissions due to high energy demand for cement production. This research integrates multiple advanced ensemble ML-based prediction models by combining experimental evaluation, explainable framework, and life cycle sustainability analysis for SCM (supplementary cementitious materials)-incorporated concrete mixtures. A comprehensive experimental program was conducted to evaluate the compressive and tensile strength of concrete revealing that the hybrid mix of GF4 with a 40% replacement level of cement with fly ash (FA) and ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS) exhibited optimum synergistic performance due to balanced hydration kinetics and improved microstructure characteristics. For computational model development, a k-fold cross validation technique was deployed to evaluate robustness across multiple data partitions and to control overfitting in models. Model performance was assessed through multiple metrics including R 2 , RMSE, and MAE with particular emphasis on the gap between training and testing performance. The best performing model was optimized using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Bayesian Optimization (BO) techniques providing an additional safeguard against overfitting. Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) interpretation revealed w/b ratio and curing age as key parameters for compressive strength, while fine aggregate content and curing age influenced tensile strength. For compressive strength, XGBoost model performed well with an R 2 value of 0.879 which was increased to 0.918 with the PSO optimization technique. For tensile strength, the Gradient Boosting model was selected with an R 2 value of 0.840 which was optimized to 0.879 after the PSO optimization technique. Moreover, life cycle assessment was performed to evaluate the environmental impacts in terms of embodied carbon and energy associated with concrete mixes. The hybrid GF4 mix demonstrated a 36% reduction in embodied carbon compared to the control mix, indicating strong potential for low carbon concrete applications. This integrated research contributes to the advancement of green construction practices and supports global efforts to reduce atmospheric impacts through the circular use of industrial byproducts.