Decarbonizing France: Asymmetric and State-Dependent Effects of Growth, Energy, Trade, and Innovation on CO 2 Emissions

This study examines the asymmetric and distribution-dependent effects of economic growth, renewable energy consumption, energy use, trade openness, and innovation on CO 2 emissions in France over the period 1990–2024. It aims to understand how positive and negative shocks in key macroeconomic variables shape emissions dynamics within a mature low-carbon economy and their implications for environmental sustainability and sustainable energy transition. The analysis employs a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to capture short- and long-run asymmetries, combined with the bounds testing approach for cointegration and Newey–West corrections for robust inference. To account for distributional heterogeneity, simultaneous quantile regressions (Q25, Q50, Q75) are estimated. The results reveal significant nonlinearities and state-dependent effects. Reductions in renewable energy exert stronger upward pressures on emissions than the mitigating effects of increases, highlighting a loss-dominance asymmetry. Energy use and trade openness exhibit asymmetric and persistent emission-increasing effects, while innovation reduces emissions primarily in the short run and during high-emission regimes. Economic growth shows no significant long-run impact, suggesting partial decoupling. Overall, emissions responses vary across both time and conditional distribution. The findings indicate that climate policies in France should prioritize renewable energy stability, energy-system flexibility, and targeted innovation strategies to effectively manage asymmetric and state-dependent environmental dynamics. The study further demonstrates that achieving long-run sustainability objectives requires adaptive climate policies capable of addressing nonlinear and distribution-dependent emissions responses within France’s low-carbon economic structure.