Exploring Drivers of Disaster Risks in Informal Settlements of Mopani District, Limpopo Province, South Africa: A Spatial Planning Perspective

Rapid urbanisation in the Global South has accelerated the expansion of informal settlements. This has increased exposure to water-, fire-, and health-related risks and undermined pathways toward sustainable urban development. Although such risks are often framed as environmental outcomes, growing evidence suggests that they are fundamentally shaped by spatial planning conditions. This study investigates the spatial planning drivers of disaster risks in informal settlements in Mopani District, South Africa. An exploratory mixed-methods design was adopted, combining data from 605 households and 87 key informants. Quantitative data were analysed using exploratory factor analysis and multinomial logistic regression, while qualitative data were analysed thematically. The results show that water-related risks were the most prevalent, affecting 50.7% of households, followed by health risks (26.3%) and fire risks (14.7%). Activity patterns emerged as the strongest and most consistent predictor of disaster risk outcomes. The findings demonstrate that disaster risk is systematically shaped by the spatial organisation of settlements, activity concentration, built-environment conditions, and institutional limitations. These dynamics have direct implications for urban sustainability. The study contributes to the literature by advancing a systems-based spatial planning perspective on disaster risk in informal settlements and by providing empirical evidence from South Africa on the persistent gap between the policy intentions of SPLUMA and its implementation. It further highlights that achieving sustainable and resilient cities requires a shift from reactive disaster management towards proactive, risk-sensitive spatial planning approaches that integrate informal settlements into formal planning systems.