The Impact of Low-Carbon City Pilots on Environmental and Economic Performance: A Pathway to a Win–Win Outcome

Implementing low-carbon city pilot policies is a crucial strategic initiative for achieving global carbon neutrality goals and serves as a key lever for promoting a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society. This study selects panel data from 272 Chinese cities between 2006 and 2023 to construct a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model. It systematically investigates the impact of low-carbon pilot policies on environmental quality and economic growth, as well as their underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that: (1) The implementation of low-carbon pilot policies not only reduces environmental pollution but also fosters economic growth, achieving a dual benefit of environmental improvement and economic advancement; (2) These policies promote environmental and economic gains by increasing investment in technological innovation and optimizing industrial structures; (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the environmental improvement effect is stronger in non-resource-based cities and those with lower fiscal pressure, whereas the economic growth effect is more pronounced in resource-based cities and those facing higher fiscal pressure; (4) Low-carbon pilot policies generate significant spatial spillover effects. The implementation of policies in one locality positively influences the environmental quality and economic development of neighboring cities. The conclusions provide empirical evidence and policy references for promoting coordinated regional green development globally and achieving the synergy between ecological preservation and economic prosperity.