Macroeconomic Convergence in the Countries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership: A Sustainable Development Context

This paper examines changes in the macroeconomic indicators of the member countries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) following their accession to the agreement. This study aims to identify shifts in the structural comparability of national economies and to assess the processes of macroeconomic convergence in the context of sustainable development. To achieve this objective, reference pools of CPTPP member countries are constructed, and their digital profiles are developed based on key macroeconomic indicators and grouped into three blocks: (1) indicators of economic growth and the state of the real sector, including GDP (constant 2015 US$), GDP growth, annual %, gross capital formation, % of GDP, unemployment, total % of total labor force, and national estimate; (2) indicators of foreign economic activity and trade openness, including exports of goods and services, % of GDP, imports of goods and services, % of GDP, external balance on goods and services (% of GDP), foreign direct investment, net inflows, % of GDP, and trade, and % of GDP; (3) indicators of financial and macroeconomic stability including inflation, consumer prices, annual %, central government debt, % of GDP, and gross savings, and % of GDP. Based on the digital profiles, similarities/differences in the economies were examined by applying linear discriminant analysis (LDA). The empirical framework covers two periods: (1) 2013–2017 (pre-accession) years and (2) 2019–2023 (post-accession) years. The results indicate that the economies of member countries in 2013–2017 exhibited a high degree of heterogeneity. In contrast, the 2019–2023 period demonstrates a tendency toward partial convergence of macroeconomic parameters, as evidenced by a reduction in distances between country profiles in the discriminant space. While interpreting the results, it is acknowledged that the 2019–2023 period coincided with the effects of the global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly impacted international trade dynamics. For most countries, this period was characterized by a decline in several macroeconomic indicators and investment activity, an increase in debt burdens, and enhanced heterogeneity in economic dynamics, which was taken into account when interpreting macroeconomic convergence processes within the CPTPP. The scientific novelty of the study lies in its application of an approach based on the analysis of the structural similarity of the macroeconomic profiles of CPTPP countries, which complements traditional assessments of the effects of economic and trade integration. The practical significance of the findings is associated with their potential use in evaluating the prospects for CPTPP expansion and in modeling alternative scenarios of participation and sustainable development within international trade agreements under conditions of global economic transformation.