Spatial Disparities and Obstacle Factors in Building a Strong Agricultural Province: An Entropy-Weighted TOPSIS and Dagum Gini Decomposition Analysis from Anhui, China

Reducing spatial inequality is central to sustainable agricultural transformation in developing regions. This study constructs a multidimensional framework to quantify regional disparities in strong agricultural development across Anhui Province, China, from 2010 to 2022. We integrated an entropy-weighted TOPSIS model with Dagum Gini decomposition and obstacle factor analysis. The analysis reveals a marked yet uneven rise in agricultural development, with growth accelerating in recent years. Central, northern, and southern Anhui exhibit a declining spatial gradient of development, while disparities—particularly between the central and southern regions—remain pronounced, though gradually narrowing. Innovation capacity, industrial competitiveness, and policy support emerge as dominant drivers of spatial differentiation, with technological innovation identified as the pivotal lever for advancing from “large” to “strong” agricultural provinces. These findings highlight the importance of innovation-led and adaptive governance strategies in narrowing development divides and guiding sustainable agricultural transformation in emerging economies.