The Impact of Digital Trade Barriers on Digital Services Imports: An Inverted U-Shaped Relationship and Implications for Sustainable Digital Trade Governance

Digital services imports have become a key driver of service trade and globalization. However, their rapid expansion has raised economic and security concerns, leading to increased digital trade barriers. This research investigates how these barriers affect digital services imports. Based on the panel data from 87 countries (2014–2022), the research shows: an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between digital trade barriers and digital services imports, characterized by an initial increase followed by a subsequent decrease. This finding remains robust after addressing endogeneity concerns and conducting a range of sensitivity tests. This relationship is most evident in developed economies with large imports, particularly in telecommunications, and is primarily driven by electronic transaction barriers and other barriers. Mechanism analysis indicates that digital trade barriers affect digital service imports through economic freedom, with the observed inverted U-shaped effect being primarily driven by the government size dimension. The institutional context reinforces the inverted U-shaped effect, with government efficiency and regulatory quality having the strongest moderating influence. By clarifying the inverted U-shaped relationship between digital trade barriers and digital services imports, this research provides a theoretical foundation and empirical evidence to support the sustainable development of digital trade.