Land Use Change and Landscape Ecological Risks in a Dynamic Landscape: Nonlinear Effects and Spatial Drivers in the Li River Basin

Rapid urbanization and tourism-driven economic development have accelerated land-use/land-cover change (LUCC), reshaped landscape structure and increased landscape ecological risk (LER). Unraveling the spatiotemporal evolution of LER and its drivers is critical for regional ecological restoration and sustainable development. Using LUCC data for the Li River Basin (LRB) during 2000–2020, this study constructed an LER assessment model based on landscape pattern indices and employed an XGBoost–MGWR framework to identify key natural and socioeconomic drivers, as well as their nonlinear effects and spatial mechanisms. The results showed that: (1) forestland and cropland dominated the basin throughout the study period. Cropland and built-up land expanded, whereas forestland, grassland, and water areas contracted, with significant mutual conversions between forestland and cropland. (2) Relatively low- and middle-risk areas dominated the LER structure and exhibited a spatial pattern of “higher in the center and lower in the periphery”. Middle- and relatively high-risk areas expanded, while low and high-risk areas contracted, indicating a shift toward middle to relatively high risk levels. (3) Land-use intensity (LUI) and the digital elevation model (DEM) were the core drivers of LER change, while tourism intensity (TRI) showed an increasing influence over time. These findings provide a scientific basis for regional ecological management and sustainable development.