EGS Sustainability: Deconstructing UtahForge Engineered Geothermal System Flow Data

Engineered geothermal system (EGS) cross-well flow of 30 L/s producing heat at a rate of Q~20 MW for 30 days was achieved by the UtahForge project in 2024. The cross-well flow doublet measured ℓ~400 m in length at L~100 m vertical offset. A first-order question is how sustainable the doublet’s 20 MW heat extraction is. Where once the answer would be framed in terms of pipe-like cubic-law flow along stress-aligned fault-scale planar heat exchange surfaces, UtahForge flow data rule out this heat exchange picture. The EGS flow data indicate aquifer-like volumetric cross-well flow with heat exchange at the grain scale. More specifically, the EGS flow data indicate no cross-well flow for a dozen hydrofrack attempts, while the 30 L/s flow occurred when the 400 m doublet wells were rendered effectively open to the crustal formation by drilling out all hydrofrack gear. An essential further observation is that the producer well flowed at only 70% of the injector rate: 30% of injected fluid was lost to flow heterogeneity in the cross-well volume. A four-step deconstruction of these observations explicitly characterizes the flow heterogeneous volume: (i) flow stimulation of the cross-well volume, (ii)wellbore-centric flow in/out of cross-well volume along the 400 m open well reach, (iii) heat advection in the cross-well volume, and (iv) sustainability-specific heat conduction into the cross-well volume. EGS stimulation process step (i) is attested by microseismic emissions (Meqs) registered on downhole sensors. Meq size and spatial correlations in turn reflect the flow heterogeneity of the cross-well volume. EGS step (iv), crustal heat conduction sustainability, is approximated by assuming radial heat energy extraction at rate Q/ℓ by a central line-sink of radius R < L/2. The line-sink analytic solution yields heat reservoir sustainability of ~3–10 years. Greater sustainability at Q/ℓ rate requires larger cross-well offsets L. The intimate relation between fluid flow and seismic emissions enables downhole seismic sensor data to image EGS flow stimulation activity. The future of EGS heat extraction depends to a large degree on feasible sizes of cross-well offset L in the flow-heterogeneous crust.