A Spatial Modelling Framework for Integrating Forest Ecosystem Services into Public Health Strategies: Evidence from Zhejiang Province, China

The relationship between forest ecosystem services and human health has emerged as a key topic in forest economics and health policy research. This study develops a spatial modelling framework to quantify the health benefits of forest ecosystem services and proposes policy mechanisms to incorporate these benefits into governmental health strategies. Using county-level panel data from 66 administrative units in Zhejiang Province, China, covering the period 2013–2023, we analyse the relationship between forest-mediated air purification services and two population health outcomes: the incidence of respiratory diseases and cardiovascular disease mortality. We employ a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to estimate both direct and spatial spillover effects across county boundaries. The findings indicate that forest ecosystem services exert significant negative effects on adverse health outcomes, with spillover effects extending beyond administrative boundaries. The monetised health benefit of forests is estimated at approximately RMB 1108.6 per hectare per year, substantially exceeding current ecological compensation standards and suggesting systematic undervaluation of forest health services. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that health benefits are greater in urbanised regions and among vulnerable population groups, including the elderly. These findings provide an empirical basis for reforming health-oriented ecological compensation mechanisms and offer implications for sustainable land use governance aligned with SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 15 (Life on Land).