How Rural E-Commerce Shapes Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China

Rural e-commerce is reshaping agricultural markets, yet its environmental consequences remain insufficiently understood. This study examines how the Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration (RECD) program affects agricultural carbon outcomes in China. Using a balanced panel of 2152 counties from 2010 to 2022, we employ a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to identify the effect of the RECD policy. The results show that the RECD policy significantly increases total agricultural carbon emissions. Evidence for production expansion and production restructuring suggests that improved market access and stronger price incentives encourage output expansion and a shift toward more market-oriented production, thereby raising aggregate emissions. At the same time, the RECD policy significantly reduces the carbon emission intensity and improves the carbon emission efficiency, indicating better carbon performance per unit of agricultural output. Further analysis shows that this dual result reflects the coexistence of efficiency gains and scale expansion, with the scale effect dominating the technical effect at the current stage. The emission-increasing effect is more pronounced in balanced agricultural areas, poverty-designated counties, counties with weaker initial e-commerce foundations, and counties with higher initial emission levels, while stronger environmental regulation and green technological innovation significantly mitigate this effect. In addition, the RECD policy generates spillover effects on neighboring counties within 50 km. These findings provide empirical evidence on the effects of the RECD policy on agricultural carbon emissions and offer policy guidance for integrating rural e-commerce policies with low-carbon agricultural transformation.