Demographic Change, Socio-Economic Disparity, and Labour Market Structure in Amasya Province, Türkiye: A Planning-Oriented Assessment Toward 2035

Urban development in medium-sized provinces is increasingly influenced by the interplay of demographic change, socio-economic disparity, and labour market structure. However, these dimensions are frequently examined in isolation, which limits their utility for integrated regional planning. This study offers a planning-oriented assessment of Amasya Province, Türkiye, by integrating population projections, district-level socio-economic disparity analysis, and labour market indicators to evaluate the province’s developmental trajectory toward 2035. The study utilizes official population data for 2007–2024, district-level socio-economic status scores for 2023, and provincial labour market indicators. Linear trend projection and compound annual growth rate analysis were employed to estimate population change, while the Gini coefficient, Theil index, and coefficient of variation were used to assess intra-provincial socio-economic disparities. Labour market performance was evaluated through participation, employment, unemployment, and employment-to-participation efficiency indicators. The results indicate that Amasya is projected to experience a moderate population increase, reaching approximately 350,118 inhabitants by 2035. Growth is anticipated to remain concentrated primarily in the Central District and Merzifon, while socio-economic advantages also exhibit a central–peripheral pattern. Labour market indicators suggest relatively stable employment performance, although more detailed sectoral, gender, and age-specific analyses are necessary for more robust conclusions. The study contributes an integrated framework for linking demographic projection, socio-economic hierarchy, and labour market capacity in medium-sized provincial planning. The findings suggest that future planning should focus on managing growth in central districts while supporting balanced development in peripheral districts.