The Effect of Agricultural New Quality Productivity on Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction: A Dual Perspective Based on Technological Innovation and Factor Efficiency

Promoting low-carbon agricultural development has become increasingly important in the context of climate change and sustainable development. Using panel data for 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2012 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model to examine the effect of agricultural new quality productivity (ANQP) on total agricultural carbon emissions (TACE) and the channels through which this effect operates. The results show that ANQP significantly reduces TACE. Mechanism analysis further indicates that this effect operates mainly through agricultural technological innovation, higher rural labor productivity, and improved agricultural land productivity. In addition, the carbon-reduction effect of ANQP displays significant regional heterogeneity and is stronger in the central and western regions, major grain-producing areas, and regions with relatively weak digital infrastructure. Overall, this study provides new empirical evidence on the environmental implications of ANQP and clarifies the conditions and channels through which productivity upgrading can contribute to low-carbon agricultural transformation.