Configuration Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Transition Characteristics and Improvement Paths of Green Utilization Efficiency of Cultivated Land in Provincial Regions of China

[Objective] This study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution and transition patterns of green utilization efficiency of cultivated land (GUECL) across Chinese provinces and to identify multidimensional configurational pathways for improving efficiency. [Method] Carbon emissions and total carbon sinks were incorporated into the evaluation index system of GUECL. The super-efficiency SBM model was used to measure GUECL. A three-dimensional analytical framework of “driving forces–external foundations–internal conditions” was then constructed. Exploratory Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis and the fsQCA method were combined to examine the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and multiple configurational pathways. [Results] (1) From 2013 to 2023, GUECL showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the mean value increasing from 0.550 to 0.835. Spatially, it presented a pattern of high efficiency in Northeast China and low efficiency in Southwest China. (2) The local spatial structure of GUECL was generally stable, although its spatiotemporal transition paths fluctuated to some extent. The cooperative effects in northeastern and western provinces were stronger than the competitive effects. The spatiotemporal evolution showed strong path dependence and lock-in effects, and the spatial association pattern was mainly positive, indicating a high degree of spatial integration. (3) Efficiency improvement was driven by the coupling of multiple factors. Four specific configurations were identified and further summarized into three typical pathways: a socially driven and economic-foundation-led pathway assisted by resource conditions; an economic- and technological-foundation-led pathway dominated by resource conditions and assisted by policy support; and a multi-factor synergistic pathway. [Conclusions] GUECL is driven by the combined and synergistic effects of driving forces, external foundations, and internal conditions. Therefore, differentiated regional strategies should be adopted to promote the precise matching and coordinated governance of multiple factors, thereby supporting the green and high-quality development of agriculture.