Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Forest Road Accessibility and Adaptation Measures to Sustain Wood Flow (A Case Study from Québec, Canada)

Climate change poses an increasing threat to the functionality of forest transportation infrastructure, particularly in northern regions where seasonal access and ground conditions are critical for wood mobilization. The objective of this study was to assess how projected changes in temperature and precipitation may compromise accessibility to forest resources. In addition, it aimed to develop targeted adaptation recommendations to support resilient transportation systems. These actions are essential to ensure the continuity of wood supply under future climatic conditions. Climate projections were extracted from the climatedata.ca platform based on the CMIP6 (CanDCS-M6) model under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Using a GIS-based workflow, projected temperature and precipitation data were spatially matched to the selected Forest Management Units (FMUs) in Quebec, Canada, and the study area was divided into three latitudinal subregions to capture spatial temperature variation. Classified road network maps were then overlaid with projected climate data for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 to evaluate winter road usability, precipitation-related exposure of road classes, and changes in effective winter road density. Results showed a consistent shortening of the winter road operational period under all scenarios, with the most severe reductions under SSP5-8.5. In highly affected areas, the winter road usability window may decrease from 90 days in 2020 to only 21 days by 2080. Increased precipitation is also expected to affect numerous road segments, raising risks of erosion, sedimentation, and loss of accessibility. A reduction of approximately 7% in effective winter road density is projected across the study area under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), reflecting the most severe impact of future temperature increases. Based on these findings, targeted road upgrades, climate-informed infrastructure design, and alternative access planning are proposed to help sustain wood flow and support year-round forest operations under future climatic conditions.