Cities Move Towards Green Sustainable Development: A Perspective Based on Artificial Intelligence Policy

How AI can contribute to green sustainable development (GSD) in China is a critical yet underexplored question. Leveraging the staggered implementation of the National New Generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Pilot Zone (AIPZ) as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs a difference-in-differences approach with panel data from 285 prefecture-level cities (2017–2022). The main findings are threefold. First, AI directly promotes GSD and, more importantly, indirectly enhances GSD by upgrading new-quality productivity (NQP)—a novel mechanism that distinguishes this study from conventional environmental policy evaluations. Second, the facilitating effect is not uniform: significant positive effects are detected in the western, eastern, and central regions, but not in the northeastern region; among major urban agglomerations, the Pearl River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing, and Yangtze River Deltaexhibit significant effects, whereas the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region does not. Third, spatial spillover analysis reveals that AI’s favorable effect on GSD spreads primarily through intercity similarity in economic development level. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers aiming to harness AI for sustainable development, highlighting the importance of fostering NQP and designing regionally differentiated strategies.