Unleashing the Low-Carbon Potential of the Digital Economy: Research on the Configuration Path of High Carbon Productivity

The digital economy (DE) is increasingly associated with higher carbon productivity (CP) and is widely regarded as an important factor in efforts to achieve the dual-carbon goals. However, the formulation of differentiated policies is constrained by a limited understanding of the multi-factor collaborative mechanisms and their asymmetric configurational pathways. This study combines the GMDH algorithm with the fsQCA approach to explore the multiple sufficient paths for high carbon productivity. Through feature selection and nonlinear modeling, the GMDH algorithm identifies five key variables associated with CP: the industrial robot permeability, software business development, digital innovation input, the usage depth of digital finance, and mobile communication facilities. The fsQCA method reveals that three configurational pathways consistent with higher levels of CP: the “innovation and finance-driven model” represented by Sichuan and Hunan, the “innovation-assisted digital industrialization model” represented by Henan and Hebei, and the “industry digitalization first developing model” represented by Jiangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. Considering the uneven regional development across China, this study further categorizes provinces into four regional development types: innovation and finance-driven, digital industry empowerment, industrial digitalization leadership, and potential cultivation. Correspondingly, tailored policy recommendations are proposed for each region, providing practical insights consistent with the observed configurational patterns for improving CP in the context of DE development.