Decoding Spatial Non-Stationarity in Coastal–Mountainous Housing Markets: A Sustainable Urban Informatics Framework Using Explainable STGCN

Traditional linear models in urban informatics struggle to capture the complex, non-linear spatial non-stationarity inherent in metropolitan housing markets. To overcome these constraints, this study introduces a data-driven computational framework integrating a Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (STGCN) with gradient-based Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). This framework is empirically tested using 217,598 apartment transactions in Busan, the Republic of Korea, augmented with high-resolution micro-demographic grids and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) topographical data. Utilizing unsupervised K-Means clustering, the region is spatially stratified into a dense Urban Core and a dispersed Suburban Periphery. The STGCN demonstrates overwhelming predictive superiority ( R 2 = 0.802 ) over the traditional Spatial Error Model ( R 2 = 0.437 ). Crucially, gradient-based XAI and localized GWR coefficients successfully unspool the deep learning “black box,” visualizing hyper-localized economic realities that global linear models obscure. The analysis expose stark regional market segmentation driven by environmental topography, mathematically quantifying non-linear dynamics such as coastal high-floor premiums, severe mountainous altitude penalties, and latent urban reconstruction premiums. Ultimately, this research bridges the gap between predictive computational power and spatial economic interpretability, offering a robust informatics framework for equitable urban planning.