Performance Evaluation of Lhasa Winter Tourism Policy Based on Institutional Change Theory

Most existing studies on winter tourism focus on destination development and resource evaluation, while systematic exploration of policy performance assessment remains insufficient. From the perspective of new institutional economics, this study innovatively introduces institutional change theory into the field of winter tourism policy evaluation. It deconstructs the three-dimensional evolution of policies—covering “design, implementation, and outcome”—and incorporates satisfaction feedback from four stakeholders: the government, tourism enterprises, local residents, and tourists. This establishes a systematic “three-dimensional, four-stakeholder” evaluation framework. To address the difficulty in obtaining policy performance data and improve the scientific rigor of empirical research, a combined subjective and objective weighting measurement system is adopted, integrating three core research instruments: the Delphi method is used to screen and confirm evaluation indicators and their connotations to ensure the rationality and pertinence of the evaluation system; the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to determine the weight of each evaluation indicator, realizing scientific and quantitative weighting of subjective and objective indicators; and questionnaire surveys are conducted to collect first-hand data on the satisfaction of the four stakeholder groups, providing empirical support for subsequent performance evaluation. This study surveyed 7 government staff, 15 tourism enterprise practitioners, 90 local residents, and 90 tourists, yielding 202 valid samples after screening. The results indicate that Lhasa’s “Winter Tour in Tibet” policy series achieved an overall effectiveness rating of B. Key deficiencies identified include insufficient public participation, low policy awareness, and weak ecological benefits. Consequently, it proposes localized optimization paths, such as “ecological winter tourism” and “targeted publicity”. This study establishes a theoretical framework for winter tourism policy evaluation, improves the methodological system for tourism policy research in special regions, provides a practical reference for the formulation and optimization of winter tourism policies in high-altitude ethnic areas, and expands the geographical coverage and theoretical boundaries of winter tourism policy research.