From National Averages to Local Realities Part 2: A Subnational Vulnerability Index to Guide Sustainable Development in Wealthy Countries

Addressing socioeconomic vulnerabilities is essential for building sustainable societies that can withstand climate change and natural disasters. Yet identifying the areas most at risk is often difficult, because relevant data are typically available only at the national level. To fill this gap, a subnational extension of the GDL Vulnerability Index was recently presented for 1260 areas across the developing world. This GVI is designed to reflect the human dimensions of vulnerability to climate change, natural hazards, and other kinds of shocks. In the present study, we introduce a new database providing comparable subnational data for 490 areas in 48 upper-middle- and high-income countries. Combined with the earlier data, this enables the first overview of subnational vulnerability on a global scale. Our findings show that, since 2000, overall vulnerability in wealthy countries has declined by 27%, while inequality in vulnerability has remained broadly stable. Incorporating subnational variation into the vulnerability profile of these countries raised the total observed variation in vulnerability up to 39%. By highlighting local inequalities in susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, the Subnational GVI (SGVI) generates valuable new evidence to improve global monitoring and support policy responses aimed at climate resilience and sustainable development.