Study on Landscape Pattern Index Analysis and Driving Mechanism of Park Green Space: A Case Study of the Central Urban Area of Shenyang

Existing research on the landscape patterns of urban parks and green spaces demonstrates a disproportionate focus across tiers within China’s urban hierarchy. Numerous studies have concentrated on economically developed first-tier cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. In contrast, medium-to-large non-first-tier cities, especially provincial capitals and emerging cities within the first- and second tiers, have been relatively understudied, although they have received increasing attention in recent years. This bias extends regionally, with studies predominantly examining cities in the more developed central and eastern regions, while less-developed areas and lower-tier cities receive significantly less attention. This study tracks changes in park quantity, spatial concentration, patch structure and driver associations at three planning-related time points. Shenyang provides a distinct cold-region and old industrial city case, shaped by long winters, industrial renewal and outward urban growth. Furthermore, to inform park and green-space planning in Northeast China’s cold-climate cities, exemplified here by Shenyang, a major metropolis with a monsoon-influenced humid continental climate (Köppen Dwa), long cold winters, and relatively short warm summers, we document a shift in park distribution from the urban core to peripheral areas. Based on park vector layers reconstructed from planning documents, remote sensing interpretation and field verification, this study combined spatial analysis, landscape metric calculation and driver-association modeling. ArcGIS Pro was used to identify changes in distribution centers, directional extension and local clustering; FRAGSTATS 4.2 was used to calculate park landscape metrics; and SIMCA-P 14.1 was used to examine the statistical associations between selected landscape indicators and potential driving variables. The results show that the number and total area of parks in central Shenyang increased substantially from 2000 to 2024. Spatially, park distribution became less concentrated in the traditional inner city, while new clusters gradually appeared in peripheral districts and newly developed urban areas. The old urban core remained important, but its dominance weakened as park provision expanded outward. The landscape metric results further indicate that park expansion was accompanied by more irregular patch forms, stronger fragmentation and declining structural continuity. The driver association analysis suggests that climate conditions, population change, industrial restructuring, real estate investment, road construction and urban greening policies were related to different aspects of park landscape change. These associations should be interpreted as statistical relationships rather than direct causal effects. Overall, this study clarifies the spatial restructuring of park green spaces in a cold-region old industrial city and provides planning evidence for improving park connectivity, coordinating green space expansion with urban construction and supporting sustainable park system development in Northeast China.