How Does Market Risk Influence Resource Allocation from the Perspective of Farmer Differentiation?—An Empirical Study Based on the Agricultural Production Structure in the Border Areas of Yunnan

As agricultural marketization deepens, market risks have become a key factor affecting rural household livelihoods, while the trend toward differentiation among rural households has further exacerbated heterogeneity in resource allocation strategies and risk-coping capabilities across different groups. Based on field survey data from 763 rural households in the border areas of Yunnan Province, this study employs a combination of the Target MOTAD model and OLS regression to analyze the optimal production mix, resource utilization efficiency, and determinants of agricultural income for different types of farming households. Empirical results indicate that capital shortages are the primary factor constraining the full utilization of agricultural resources and farmers’ income growth; non-agricultural households, through proactive risk management, demonstrate significantly stronger risk resilience than agricultural households; and differences in the income structures of these two types of households drive them to adopt differentiated risk response strategies. Based on these findings, this study proposes the following optimization pathways: First, enhance rural households’ ability to accumulate capital to overcome the bottlenecks of resource idleness and income growth; second, promote moderate-scale agricultural operations to improve resource utilization efficiency; third, implement differentiated risk response strategies based on the heterogeneous characteristics of farming households. This research provides theoretical references and practical foundations for optimizing resource allocation among rural households in Yunnan’s border regions and enhancing agricultural risk-response capabilities.