Forecasting Unemployment and Workforce Adaptation in Kazakhstan Under Digital Transformation

This study examines labor market dynamics in Kazakhstan in the context of digital transformation, human capital development, and workforce adaptation. It focuses on unemployment trends, demographic changes, and structural labor market characteristics between 2010 and 2025. Several time-series forecasting approaches were evaluated to assess future unemployment trends. Among the tested models, SARIMA demonstrated the best forecasting performance and was used to estimate unemployment dynamics through 2028. The results indicate a relatively stable labor market, with a gradual decline in unemployment over the forecast period. The analysis also shows that demographic structure, youth labor market integration, migration processes, and educational attainment play important roles in shaping employment outcomes. Higher education is associated with lower unemployment, while vocational groups demonstrate greater labor market vulnerability. The study contributes by combining unemployment forecasting with demographic and workforce adaptation analysis in the context of an emerging economy. The findings suggest that workforce adaptability, digital skills development, and targeted employment policies may support sustainable labor market development under conditions of technological transformation.