Mismatches and Pressure Evolution of Agricultural Water and Land Resources Under Continuous Water Footprint Expansion: A Case Study of Aksu in Arid Northwest China

Under high-intensity agricultural development, understanding the spatial allocation and scarcity pressure of agricultural water and land resources is critical for regional sustainability. Using water footprint and remote sensing data in Aksu, this study applies the spatial mismatch index, Gini coefficient, and scarcity indices to assess water–land matching and pressure dynamics and traces the migration of pressure center of gravity using the standard deviation ellipse model. The results show: (1) Water footprint and irrigated area increased over 2000–2020, with matching Gini coefficient fluctuating upward and severe mismatches in the northeast and southwest. (2) Resource scarcity indices fluctuated significantly; relative water scarcity peaked in 2015, and both pressure centers shifted eastward. (3) Economic factors are the primary drivers of water footprint and irrigated area changes, while water–land pressure correlates strongly with economic and production conditions. We conclude that Aksu’s water–land matching underwent a phased transition from relative balance to significant imbalance and then to gradual improvement, with 2015 as the critical turning point; the pressure centers migrated eastward (but at different distances); and economic factors dominate this evolution. These findings provide a scientific basis for differentiated waterland regulation in arid oasis agriculture.