Assessing the Impact of Carbon Pricing on the Sustainable Transition of Coal-Dominated Power Systems in China: An Integrated Resource Planning Approach

Achieving sustainability in the energy sector has become a critical global challenge under the increasing pressures of climate change. Amid increasingly severe global climate change, the Chinese government has attached great importance to carbon emission control and is actively advancing the construction of its carbon market. As a core element of carbon markets, the carbon price exerts a pivotal influence on the transition and low-carbon development of the coal-fired power industry. This paper undertakes an in-depth analysis of the low-carbon transition of China’s coal-fired power industry under the influence of the carbon price, aiming to provide a theoretical basis for policymakers in formulating relevant policies. It begins by reviewing the concept and characteristics of carbon markets, as well as the development status of both international and Chinese carbon markets. This is followed by an analysis of the current state of China’s coal-fired power industry, its transition needs, and the impacts of the carbon price on the industry. Subsequently, a self-developed comprehensive resource planning model is employed to simulate the effects of carbon price changes on the installed capacity development, structural adjustment, and carbon emissions from the power sector of China’s coal power enterprises. Finally, policy recommendations to facilitate the transition of the coal-fired power industry are proposed. The research findings indicate that changes in the carbon price have a significant impact on the coal-fired power industry, driving enterprises to reduce carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency. Furthermore, carbon market policies play a crucial role in promoting the low-carbon transition of the coal-fired power industry. Through policy adjustments and optimization, synergistic development between carbon market policies and the industry’s transition can be achieved. The findings provide important insights for enhancing environmental sustainability, economic efficiency, and system resilience in China’s power sector under carbon neutrality goals.