The Impact of Digital New Infrastructure on the Balanced Development of Digital–Real Economy Integration: Evidence for Sustainable Regional Growth

Digital new infrastructure (DNI) has emerged as a pivotal force in reshaping regional economic geography. However, the existing literature primarily focuses on its macro-growth effects, leaving a significant gap regarding whether it effectively bridges the divide in Digital–Real Economy Integration (DRI) and promotes sustainable regional development. Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China (2013–2023), this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically investigate the impact of DNI on the balanced development of DRI and its underlying mechanisms. The research findings are threefold: First, DNI acts as a critical driver of regional convergence in DRI by accelerating digital technology diffusion and facilitating digital talent mobility, thereby significantly mitigating inter-provincial disparities. Second, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the convergence effect of DNI is contingent upon regional environments: the “picking the winners” bias in fiscal expenditure inadvertently weakens the inclusive nature of DNI; conversely, a robust high-tech industrial base, financial deepening, and the “East Data, West Computing” strategy significantly enhance the convergence effect by strengthening technology absorption capacity and alleviating financing constraints. Third, threshold effect analysis confirms the catalytic role of marketization, demonstrating that a mature market environment effectively breaks the geographical stickiness of factor flows, thus amplifying the balanced growth dividends of DNI. This study not only extends the theory of regional convergence into the digital era but also provides critical policy insights for achieving sustainable and inclusive digital transformation.