Measuring Real Energy Price Gaps: The Real PLI Framework for Competitiveness Monitoring

Global energy markets have experienced persistent dispersion in real energy prices, creating structural competitiveness pressures that standard indicators often fail to capture in real time. These pressures have intensified as energy-intensive sectors face asymmetric exposure across advanced and emerging economies. This study addresses two critical gaps in international energy cost competitiveness. The first is a frequency gap: conventional indicators such as the Real Unit Energy Cost (RUEC) are typically published with delays of 2–5 years, limiting their usefulness for timely policy evaluation. Here, both RUEC and the Real Price Level Index for energy (Real PLI)—the ratio of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for energy to that for GDP—are measured with only a 2–3-month lag for nine countries—four in Asia, four in Europe, and the U.S. The second is a competitiveness gap that calls for policy responses. Real PLIs indicate that the energy price disadvantages of Japan, Korea, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK have widened from 1.76–2.91 times the U.S. level before the pandemic to 2.14–3.28 times by Q3 2025, with the gaps relative to China and India also widening. Once country-specific thresholds are exceeded, output in energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries tends to contract disproportionately. These findings highlight that sustainable transitions require not only internationally differentiated burden-sharing but also structural reforms to avoid persistent widening of energy price gaps. The Real PLI framework provides a timely indicator of competitiveness and an early-warning tool, signaling when growing asymmetries may undermine policy feasibility. Policy implications include the need to monitor real energy price dispersion as a core source of competitiveness risk, to strengthen structural measures that stabilize marginal energy costs, and to design transition pathways that account for heterogeneous adjustment pressures across countries.